Survival Skills - the Newsletter
Is 'synthetic fuel' the future? Yamaha believe so / live talk event - Monday Jan 15!
Kawasaki have built a Hydrogen-fuelled bike… Suzuki think Hydrogen and synthetic fuel is the answer. Yamaha think Hydrogen’s the wrong answer but want more focus on synthetic fuel. So last week in Elevenses, I asked if this was a concerted industry push-back against the cut-off date for ICE engines? READ THE FULL ARTICLE!
If you have been a regular follower of Elevenses (and this article is adapted from yesterday's show) you'll probably recall I was pretty astonished when Triumph announced they had shelved their electric bike project, the TE-1.
The bike was announced with a big fanfare, and Triumph reported on progress via a series of bullish press releases which culminated in a press release saying the TE-1 had the size and dimensions of a Street Triple and offers a "category-leading" 161km / 100mile range plus the performance of a 130 kW (177PS / 175bhp) peak power motor, with a 20 minute 0-80% charge time, something Triumph themselves said "a game-changing outcome", all wrapped up in a bike that weighed just 220kg.
Then they parked it.
Even more remarkable were the remarks of Ducati’s European head Fabrizio Cazzoli. Not too long ago, Ducati proudly showed off their new MotoE machine, having won the contract to replace the bikes provided by the Italian Energica brand. At the time, the Ducati statement said: "the road ahead is still very long, but in the meantime, we have laid a first important ‘brick’... the goal is to create, as soon as the technology allows it, a Ducati electric vehicle for road use that is sporty, light, exciting, and able to satisfy all enthusiasts."
But by February last year Cazzoli was saying: "Electrification will be a long way away, not only for Ducati but for the entire motorcycle industry because right now it is not a completely viable solution..."
Just a few shows ago, I featured an MCN interview with Suzuki’s general manager for motorcycle sales Akira Kyuji. I read the article, and said that as far I I could see, Suzuki's plans for an electric future were vague. More surprising, at least to me, was the claim that “for large motorcycles for leisure purposes" the company would be "considering adopting carbon neutral fuels" and that Suzuki would be making "further investment was being directed into alternative, sustainable fuels" which included hydrogen.
This is almost certainly a response to the EU's decision to leave a 'back door' open to the use of non-petroleum derived fuels. At the insistence of Germany and other EU member states, the EU ban on ICE vehicles from 2035 now includes the possibility that internal combustion vehicles powered exclusively by e-fuels could still be registered after 2035. The EU Commission will is to submit proposals on how an exception might look like, which will be interesting since both hydrogen and synthetic fuels produce NOx tailpipe emissions so are not totally green.
And last week, I talked about MCN interview with Yamaha’s outgoing European President, Eric de Seynes, about the company's plans which also centre around synthetic fuels as he said "in the short term the internal combustion engine is the best technology you can get. That’s a fact." Whilst suggesting that Hydrogen wasn't a viable option, he cited a Japanese report that claimed that switching to synthetic fuel would reduce emissions created during the petrol production stage just so long as "we produce synthetic gasoline with green energy close to where it will be consumed".
Maybe it's just me seeing conspiracies, but this all begins to sound less like an attempt to advance an alternative clean energy solution - as I've explained, the energy demands for producing sufficient synthetic fuel to run even a small percentage of the world's vehicles are unlikely to be met any time soon - than a carefully considered industry-wide position to push back on the upcoming ICE ban, a sort of hidden statement that "if we do nothing, the EU will have to delay it". Let's face it, if the motorcycle manufacturers could keep their production lines turning over building ICE engines, they'd be very happy indeed. It would save a lot of research and investment into electricity.
Will it be a successful position and win a reprieve for the ICE? Frankly, I'm doubtful, for four reasons.
Firstly, automotive manufacturers ARE moving to electric power, and EV sales have moved from niche to mainstream. There are still many diehard petrol heads but plenty of drivers are finding EVs meet their needs. William Bannister, CEO of MFG, one of the UK’s biggest independent filling station groups which owns more than 900 sites, was recently reported by Autocar as predicting that by 2030, the car market could be about 20% electric, rising to 60% by 2035 - that's enough for MFG to be identifying which of their sites are suitable for installing charging hubs - at around £1m per site, that's no small investment.
Secondly, if mainstream PTW manufacturers are reluctant to move to electric, there are plenty of start-ups more than happy to fill the void. Some of them have already proven short-lived, more will fail. But a few will likely succeed. India in particular is seriously ramping up EV bikes.
Third, there's China. If the Japanese and European bike companies aren't meeting needs, expect the Chinese to step in. They did it with 125s, they did it with emerging markets. There will be a reluctance to purchase Chinese motorcycles from some, but with the likes of KTM start moving their R&D facilities and selling 'European' machines built in China, attitudes will shift. I don't think it's a coincidence that Chinese have suddenly launched a shed-load of ICE bikes. Not only are they are helping fill the gaping holes left by the contraction of the Japanese manufacturers ranges - Suzuki hardly have a bike left to sell in the UK - I suspect that they hope to make inroads into the electric motorcycle market too by getting riders are used to riding Chinese bikes. Don't forget, the Japanese did the same, and it didn't take them more than a decade to put the entire UK bike industry out of business.
And fourth and lastly, the MCIA here in the UK have been arguing that PTWs should be given special dispensation to continue to use petrol engine, but bizarrely at the same time they have indicated their willingness to throw the small petrol-engined commuter bike under the metaphorical electric bus.
That's bizarre because their rationale for retaining petrol bikes is founded on the argument that the ICE engine in motorcycles is fuel-efficient, and that's a claim based almost entirely on the frugal fuel consumption of those self-same small capacity ICE bikes. In any case, any argument for special treatment, even if the thinking behind it was sound, is an incredibly risky strategy - with bike riders being less than 1% of the UK population, we'd be daft to expect motorcycles to be treated differently.
So where to?
Personally, I think we're due for a recalibration of what we consider necessary in a motorcycle. We may be sitting here looking at existing offerings from Livewire and Zero saying "it's not quick enough, doesn't go far enough and weighs too much", but we're not the typical PTW rider even in the UK - just check the registration data.
And we certainly don't represent the people that the vast majority of motorcycles are being sold to around the planet.
_ _ _ _ _
What do YOU think? Drop me a line. I’d be interested to hear.
LIVE WINTER TALK EVENTS ARE BACK- Next talk is
FEBRUARY Monday 19 @ 8pm - Topic to be confirmed
PAST WINTER TALKS - WATCH ON CATCH-UP:
JANUARY - SOBS in-depth; understanding how camouflage works and the implications for clothing.
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DECEMBER - Workload; how the brain processes limited information but pretends to give us the full picture of our environment.
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NOVEMBER - Science Of Being Seen; full presentation
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In today’s show: amber weather warnings for Storm Isha... major fuel retailers sign up for price 'pumpwatch' scheme... EU extends suspension of HD tariff scheme... 2023 registration numbers flatline... GPS data reveals slowest city in the world is London... mega-mirrors... CFMoto's active suspension reacts before you hit a bump... Bennetts BikeSocial asks if Chinese bikes can dominate... in-depth today - BMW hedges bets with e-bike designs and call for synthetic fuels for future bikes...
Make a brew, grab a biscuit and pull up a chair ready to tune in to keep up with the latest motorcycle news and sometimes controversial views, plus in-depth items on biking generally. Join me, Kevin Williams, twice a week on Wednesday and Sunday at 11am for 30 minutes of topical news, controversial views and better biking tips!
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SoS Jan 20 Structuring our future development P3
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SOBS Jan 18 To be seen, start with shape and NOT colour
Elevenses 402 Wed 17 Jan - motorcycle news, tips & views
ToT Jan 16 Newbie Mistakes #10 Bamboozled by bus lanes
COMMENT Jan 15 Are we seeing an industry pushback against electric PTW
Elevenses 401 Sun 14 Jan - motorcycle news, tips & views
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