Survival Skills - the Newsletter
When the police deliver incorrect statistics in a safety campaign, trust suffers
Last time out, I was critiquing the way the Motorcycle Industry Association was making a ‘less-worse’ decline in bike registrations sound like a positive improvement. That’s bad enough when there are people trying to earn a living in the industry. But when the police publish statistics, they’re framing how we think about risk, blame and responsibility. Accuracy matters. If the figures are wrong, it’s trust that suffers.
Take Derbyshire Police’s recent Facebook post about motorcyclist fatalities. The claim was that their analysis of the ten fatal motorcycle crashes in 2024 in the county had revealed that rider error was the cause in 9 out of the 10 incidents. But I turned up a Freedom of Information request which revealed the correct number was fifteen.
Why would a police force make a mistake like that? Maybe it was sloppy work by the social media team. Maybe they were working from provisional data, and those five uncounted fatalities were still under investigation. Or maybe it was more deliberate—a decision to smooth the numbers so they sounded more alarming, and more useful for a hard-hitting social-media message.
That is not a trivial error. Whatever the explanation, the damage is the same: a loss of trust.
Because here’s the thing—when the police try to influence public behaviour, whether it’s urging riders to slow down or drivers to check their mirrors, they have to be seen as credible. Riders are not fools. They know from experience how often other vehicles cause collisions, and they know when statistics don’t smell right. So if a force is caught downplaying the true figures, many bikers will conclude that the police are less interested in facts than in pushing a narrative.
That was the response of many of the people commenting on the post. And once that suspicion sets in, the official safety messages—no matter how well-intentioned—start to fall flat.
Accurate stats aren’t just about good bookkeeping. They are about respect. Respect for the dead, who deserve to be counted properly. Respect for the living, who deserve to base their decisions on reality, not spin. And respect for the public, whose trust is the most valuable resource the police have.
Five missing crashes may sound like a clerical slip, but in truth it’s a warning sign. If we can’t rely on the police to get something this basic right, why should we believe them when they tell us 90% of crashes are “rider error” or that their latest campaign will make us safer? The numbers matter. And so does the truth.
Read my full investigation in my FOCUS on FRIDAY post.
In the video linked above, I look at ‘Doodle on a Motorcycle’s tank slapper crash. The bike, a ‘neo-retro’ Janus Halcyon 250, has come in for a lot of criticism and there’s been all sorts of speculation about what triggered the wobble, but I haven’t seen any advice on how to recover once the wobble starts.
Sos Aug 23 SMIDSY - Junctions, collisions & Degrees of Freedom
FoF Aug 22 Full Facts - A lesson in using social media
60 Second Safety 125 Recovering from a high frequency wobble
Elevenses 556 Wed 20 Aug - motorcycle news, tips & views
ToT Aug 19 Third Gear: Integrating techniques across our riding
Elevenses 555 Sun 17 Aug - motorcycle news, tips & views
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