Survival Skills - the Newsletter
Is 'synthetic fuel' the future? Yamaha believe so / live talk event - Monday Jan 15!
I got more feedback on my Elevenses / Monday comment item about Yamaha’s apparently belief that synthetic fuel is the route we should be pursuing than I have on a post for a while. So I’m reproducing it here in full for those of you that didn’t get to see / read it.
A few shows ago, I featured an MCN interview with Suzuki’s general manager for motorcycle sales Akira Kyuji and I said that the discussion only revealed that Suzuki's plans for an electric future were vague.
Just to remind you, in January last year, Suzuki laid out a definitive timescale for introducing electric bikes, announcing their 'first EV motorcycle' in the small-to-mid-capacity class would be due to arrive sometime in 2024, with a range of eight by 2030 and that “for large motorcycles for leisure purposes" the company would be "considering adopting carbon neutral fuels”
And I said that at the end of 2023, the interview revealed little, but the increasing likelihood that Suzuki will follow Honda's lead with a small commuter machine as he said the manufacturer remains "on track to reveal their first electric two-wheeler next year".
Of note though, the interview reiterated that "further investment was being directed into alternative, sustainable fuels."
So I was interested to see that just before New Year, MCN also interviewed Yamaha’s European President, Eric de Seynes, about the company's plans around the internal combustion engine and alternative fuels.
Here's the background. Yamaha have a long link with Toyota for hydrogen burning engines - if I remember right, they provided the engine for an endurance racing car burning the gas.
And Back in May, Yamaha announced a partnership with Suzuki, Honda, and Kawasaki and Kawasaki Heavy Industry for the development of future hydrogen-burning ICE engines, whilst at the end of 2023, Yamaha promised a prototype V8 hydrogen outboard engine for display at February's Miami International Boat Show.
So despite this commitment I was rather surprised to hear de Saynes say that:
“We know how to make a scooter run with hydrogen, how it works and can manage it. But to make it real for our customers is another story. And we are not alone.”
Why?
“Hydrogen is obviously a next-generation technology, but it requires a lot of energy [to produce], so until the world is producing more energy, cleaner energy, green energy, hydrogen is a dream."
That's the very point I've been making for the last few years - right now, the main source for 'clean hydrogen' is very dirty oil and coal. Yes, you can use electricity to split water to produce hydrogen and oxygen, then you can burn the hydrogen in air to create energy, but the product is just water - there are also the unpleasant NOx tailpipe pollutants that many conveniently overlook when calling hydrogen 'green'.
Set that NOx issue aside, and right now we have nothing like the electricity capacity to split water.
And in the interview de Seynes also pointed out that there are storage challenges.
Firstly, stored as a gas, Hydrogen has a lower energy density than petrol, and requires three times the volume of a conventional fuel tank for a bike with a realistic range - hence the bulbous rear end on the modified H2 Kawasaki shown off last November.
And if it's carried as a liquid, the tank needs to be maintained at an extremely low temperature of -253°C or -423°F and that requires specialised, well-insulated cryogenic tanks which are bulky and heavy. And if the insulation fails, heat transfer from the environment or vehicle can cause rapid evaporation or "boil-off," leading to pressure build-up in the tank. T
Right now, the infrastructure for handling and refueling vehicles with liquid hydrogen is limited too - it would need a complete rebuild.
De Seynes continued: “This is also why we are participating with this [hydrogen] consortium because it’s advanced technology and it’s better that we share. It makes sense to have a consortium and work together until the market is ready."
But here's the crunch.
He says "But in the short term the internal combustion engine is the best technology you can get. That’s a fact.”
And he went onto suggest that switching to synthetic fuel would reduce emissions created during the petrol production stage.
“The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association did a study to evaluate the benefit of synthetic fuel, and [found] if you use synthetic instead of the mineral fuel – because you don’t have the search to find the resource, the extraction, transformation, and transportation to the place where you consume the fuel – it represents 50% of the fuel’s CO2 footprint before it’s even used.
“So, we can reduce by 50% the CO2 footprint of the [current] technology, the same engines, if we produce synthetic gasoline with green energy close to where it will be consumed.”
MCN naturally see this as a lifeline to extend our use of petrol-engined bikes.
But, as I have also said before, there's little chance of creating 'bio-fuels' from plant material unless some radical new technology like seaweed farming begins very soon indeed - switching agricultural land to biomass production for bio-fuels is a non-starter simply because of the huge areas of productive farmland which would be needed to fuel even a fraction of the vehicles on the planet.
And much the same applies to synthetic fuels as to hydrogen production - vast amounts of cheap electricity would need to be generated to power the process, and right now, that's cheap energy we don't have.
De Seynes believes more time is needed.
“I hope governments will understand and consider the 2030/2035 ban because everybody will be in a corner, and it will be difficult. Today, it’s not realistic.”
I'm always dubious when technology companies call for more time. It generally means they want to maximise profit from existing technology rather than spend developing something new. It's no coincidence that wars usually see astonishing advances. Just look at aircraft, and compare what was available in 1939 - most airforces were still using significant numbers of biplanes - and what was being flown in 1945 - we'd entered the jet age. That was just six years of development time.
More realistically, in my opinion, de Seynes appears to believe there is a strong case for inner city electric motorcycles.
“Where I’m convinced we must move with electricity is mobility vehicles – in the city. For two reasons: first you limit CO2 emissions where people live, in terms of health. And the main benefit is silence.
“Noise is a true pollution we have to control better. So, at least we solve silence and CO2 emissions where people live, which makes sense.
“Also, [electric] technology is more or less OK. If you ride 50-80kms a day, it’s manageable."
And he predicts that all manufacturers will move in this direction.
_ _ _ _ _
What do YOU think? Drop me a line. I’d be interested to hear.
LIVE ONLINE TALK EVENTS - we're sold a shed-load of clothing that's supposed to enhance our conspicuity. But does it? What would work best? The easiest way to find out is to start by looking at what does the opposite - what kind of colours and patterns act as camouflage!
That’s the topic of the next talk, scheduled for next Monday, 15 January, at 8pm - ‘SOBS in-depth; understanding how camouflage works and the implications for clothing’. Don’t forget - if you can’t make it live, you can always watch on catch-up later!
BOOK HERE - https://ko-fi.com/s/132d2e9cb7
You can also watch on catch-up the earlier presentations this winter:
DECEMBER - Workload; how the brain processes limited information but pretends to give us the full picture of our environment - CATCH-UP HERE - https://ko-fi.com/s/a42d6984f9
NOVEMBER - Science Of Being Seen; full presentation - CATCH-UP HERE - https://ko-fi.com/s/1c5766dfaf
(Each talk costs £6. Why do I charge for these talks? To help support my continuing UNFUNDED research into SMIDSYs)
In today’s show: open-face helmet ban for Spain... average speed cameras upset bikers... MBK becomes Yamaha Motor Manufacturing Europe... government-funded interest-free electric bikes and rickshaws for the Punjab... MIT offers blueprint for build your own fuel cell bike... Gachaco opens up battery-swap service to public in Tokyo... Benelli's Tornado 400 and MBP T502X head to Europe... in-depth today - is the pushback
Make a brew, grab a biscuit and pull up a chair ready to tune in to keep up with the latest motorcycle news and sometimes controversial views, plus in-depth items on biking generally. Join me, Kevin Williams, twice a week on Wednesday and Sunday at 11am for 30 minutes of topical news, controversial views and better biking tips!
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SoS Jan 13 Structuring our future development P2
FoF Jan 12 Thinking about how we think
60 Second Science Jan 11 What is wind chill, does it matter to bikers?
Elevenses 400 Wed 10 Jan - motorcycle news, tips & views
ToT Jan 9 Newbie Mistakes #9 Baffled by Box Junctions Pt 2
COMMENT January 8 "Together in Electric Dreams"... or not!
Elevenses 399 Sun 7 Jan - motorcycle news, tips & views
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